Vulnerable U.S. House Republicans
Here’s some research to identify vulnerable House Republicans, in an attempt to predict who is most likely to get uncomfortable with the chaos in DC. Please encourage family and friends in these places to call in to their member of Congress, to write LTE's, to circulate memes on FB, and to demand that their member hold a town hall to face the constituents.
It’s based on Charlie Cook's Partisan Voting Index (PVI or CPVI). See the great page on Wikipedia and dig into the Congressional districts. Here I take into account CPVI, 2024 presidential result (if available), and median household income, the last on the theory that well-off people dislike chaos in government (and are more likely to be college educated, which has the same effect). And a few other things based on recent events, some of which were confirmed recently in an article by Markos on Daily Kos. I have put the district maps from Wikipedia under the text so you can locate any relatives or friends.
Seven Vulnerable Republicans in the US House, in order
1. Mike Lawler, NY-17. Northern Westchester plus Putnam, Rockland, and a bit of Dutchess Counties. Affluent (median HH $119K) and D+3. He won only after Sean Patrick Maloney made some divisive decisions and later did not campaign seriously, until it was too late. Basically, a fluke. 2024: Harris 50-49.
2. Brian Fitzpatrick, PA-1, Philly north suburbs--Bucks and a bit of Montgomery County to the Delaware River. Affluent (median HH $108K), CPVI even, 2024 Harris 50-49.
3. Don Bacon, NE-2 (the "blue dot"). Omaha and western suburbs. Cook PVI even, median HH $81K, Harris (Walz a big help here) 51-47.
4. David Valadao, CA-22- Bakersfield and west. Median HH $60K, Cook PVI D+5 (this will get smaller because of Trump 52-46 in '24.) But lots of R's might stay home because Genius Trump just dumped much of their irrigation water.
5. Tom Kean, Jr., NJ-7, includes rich NYC exurbs and the horsey set. Cook PVI R+1 but 12th most affluent in the country--median HH $134K. Trump 49-48 in '24.
6. Gabe Evans, CO-8, Denver north suburbs and way north. CPVI even, median HH $92K. The incumbent Dem who narrowly lost last year (Caraveo) was really hurt by some bonehead minor party candidates. Dems have a 3% registration advantage. 2024: Trump 49.6- 47.7.
7. Maria Elvira Salazar, FL-27, Miami and a bit south. Median HH $77K, Cook PVI even, 2024: Trump 57 -42. Florida has been so discouraging lately, but the revocation of protection for many Venezuelans who fled Maduro is not going down well.